Half a year ago I wrote the following statement:
The Mobile Spoon Predicts: By Mid 2012, Android tablets sales will bypass the iPad's sales, turning Android to be the leading mobile OS for both smartphones and tablets.
I try not to make dumb predictions (although sometimes I can't stop myself from being dumb…), but as time went by I started to doubt my own thoughts as nothing seemed to shake iPad's leadership in the tablets market.
8 months before the due date of my prediction, and it seems like something is finally moving in the right direction (sorry Apple, I actually prefer iOS but I must succeed with my prediction): according to RBC analyst Mike Abramsky: Kindle Fire demand surpasses iPad ahead of launch, could be a threat. Wow, did you hear that? The demand for Kindle Fire is now bigger than the demand for the first iPad.
Does it mean that my prediction will become realized? Will it win me a Pulitzer prize? Will I get more votes because of it in The 2011 Mobile Visionary Star Award contest that I am participating in?
Well, I'm not sure.
You see, the Kindle Fire is riding on the success of iPad 1 and iPad 2. The entire tablets market is. The total demand for tablets these days is much bigger than what it was before the first iPad was released (while most people were skeptical about the true need for a tablet…) because of the iPad hype. We will have to see a real comparison between iPad and Fire demand to fully understand the picture.
One thing I'm pretty sure of: the Kindle Fire is the first true contender to the iPad in the tablets arena. Xoom? get out of here. TouchPad? Don't give me that joke. Galaxy Tab? Almost… but no. iPad remains king, Kindle Fire? Hmm… Now you're talking…
Here are some of the key features you get with this $199 tablet:
- 18 million movies, TV shows, songs, magazines, and books
- Amazon Appstore -- thousands of well loved apps and games
- Amazon Silk: an ultra-quick web browsing using unique Amazon server side services
- Free cloud storage for all your Amazon content
- Vibrant color touchscreen with extra-wide viewing angle
- Dual-core processor (although technical specifications should not be your primary way to select a new device)
- A tablet with a different size – perfect for people who thinks iPad is too big.
There are some missing capabilities as well: 3G, Cameras, storage, but I think those are minor capabilities for tablets. especially when the price is so different: Apple’s iPad 2 comes between the price range of $499 and $799 where as the Kindle Fire costs just $199.
Here's a short video review presenting some of the capabilities:
Here's a nice set of numbers: Amazon Kindle Fire vs. Apple iPad:
An online Retrevo survey of more than 1,000 Americans in October found that 44 percent would consider the 7-inch Kindle Fire over 12 percent favoring the 9.7-inch iPad , starting at $499. Another 44 percent said they "didn't know enough about the Amazon tablet."
Retrevo added that the $249 Nook Tablet "could also be an attractive alternative to an iPad."
Retrevo's survey also indicated that even current iPad owners might want a smaller, lighter tablet such as the Kindle Fire, Nook Tablet, or a future, smaller iPad.
Interesting topic. Be sure I will continue to follow, mid 2012 is getting close, and I need my prediction to happen. Will the Kindle Fire be the first iPad killer? Will it finally put Android in a leading position in the tablets realm?